Diesel Sets a Record for the Second Straight Week, and the Midwest Is Taking the Hardest Hit

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly diesel survey, published Sept. 22, put the national average on-highway price at $6.529 a gallon for the week ending Sept. 21 — up 24.4 cents from the prior week's $6.285, and the second consecutive weekly record. The EIA has now raised its national average nine times in the past eleven weeks.

The regional breakdown, drawn directly from the EIA's five-PADD table, shows the increase was not evenly spread. The Midwest (PADD 2) rose 43.0 cents on the week, to $6.680 — the steepest single-week regional move in the current report and nearly double the East Coast's 11.0-cent gain, to $6.268. The Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4) climbed 27.4 cents to $6.340, and the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) rose 15.0 cents to $6.177. The West Coast (PADD 5) remains the most expensive region in absolute terms at $7.456 a gallon, up 20.6 cents.

Why the price keeps climbing

The proximate cause is a supply shock centered on the Middle East. Kpler shipping data, cited in wire coverage of the IEA's most recent market report, shows Middle Eastern diesel exports have roughly halved since March compared with year-earlier levels, averaging around 800,000 barrels a day, as the region supplied 41% of Europe's diesel imports in 2025 before the falloff. Russia layered on a diesel export ban in July after drone strikes on its refineries, and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has forced longer, costlier routings for the cargoes that do move.

The slack is not coming from U.S. refiners. The International Energy Agency has said domestic refinery runs hit their highest level in eight years in late August, but warned that refineries worldwide are already running near capacity, leaving little room to absorb the lost Middle East barrels. U.S. diesel inventories are currently about 15% below their five-year seasonal average, according to the same reporting — a thin cushion heading into what is typically a period of rising distillate demand.

What it means for forwarders and brokers

Three things worth tracking this week:

• Surcharges reset on a lag, not instantly. Most carrier and 3PL fuel-surcharge tables index to this same EIA national average, typically with a one-week trigger. A 24-cent jump in the base number means shippers on EIA-indexed lanes should expect the surcharge line to move again on next week's invoice, not this one — the increase is already locked in even though it hasn't hit freight bills yet.
• The Midwest move is the one to underwrite for. A 43-cent regional jump against an 11-cent East Coast move is a large enough gap that a national blended surcharge will systematically underprice Midwest-originating freight and overprice East Coast freight this week. Brokers quoting flat national fuel adders on Midwest lanes are giving away margin.
• West Coast drayage carries the highest absolute exposure. At $7.456 a gallon, PADD 5 diesel is running nearly $1.20 above the East Coast rate. For drayage moves out of Los Angeles/Long Beach, where per-mile fuel cost is already a larger share of total cost than on long linehaul, that gap compounds faster than the percentage figures suggest.

None of this is guaranteed to persist. The IEA's own framing is that the market has little slack rather than that it is broken, and a Middle East de-escalation or a partial reversal of Russia's export ban could unwind the move as quickly as it built. But nothing in the current data — nine increases in eleven weeks, inventories still shrinking — points to relief before the EIA's next release on Sept. 29.