U.S. Rail Intermodal Volume Jumps 18% as Carload Growth Lags Behind It

U.S. railroads moved 533,545 combined carloads and intermodal units in the week ending Sept. 5, up 13.8% from the same week in 2025, according to the Association of American Railroads' Weekly Rail Traffic report. But the two halves of that number are moving at very different speeds: carloads rose 8.9% to 234,397, while intermodal containers and trailers rose 18.0% to 299,148 — intermodal is now growing at roughly twice the carload rate.

Year to date through 35 weeks, the gap is narrower but still present: carloads are up 2.8% to 7,986,328 and intermodal is up 4.2% to 9,904,325, for a combined total of 17,890,653, up 3.6%. North American volume (U.S., Canada and Mexico combined) came in at 727,511 for the week, up 12.4%, and 24,540,451 year to date, up 3.3%.

What's moving, and what isn't

Metallic ores and metals led carload commodity growth for the week, up 26.6% (a gain of 4,859 carloads), followed by grain, up 24.1% (4,373 carloads) — a jump consistent with the early U.S. harvest pulling grain onto rail ahead of export and domestic milling demand. Chemicals rose 12.9% (3,848 carloads). Coal was the lone decliner among the major commodity groups, down 5.8% for the week (3,547 fewer carloads), though its year-to-date decline is a much smaller 1.8%, suggesting the weekly drop is closer to noise than a new trend.

The intermodal-over-carload skew matters because it says something about what kind of freight is actually growing right now: intermodal is largely retail, e-commerce and manufactured-goods traffic moving in containers, while carload is dominated by bulk commodities — grain, coal, chemicals, metals. An 18% intermodal gain against high-single-digit carload growth points to consumer and manufactured-goods volume outrunning bulk commodity demand, even with grain's harvest-driven spike included in the carload figure.

What forwarders and drayage providers do differently

Rail intermodal volume is the leading indicator drayage providers and intermodal marketing companies watch before port and inland ramp congestion becomes visible in wait times:

• An 18% year-over-year intermodal jump is a tightening signal, not a comfort signal. Volume growth at this rate against a network sized for a slower year raises the odds of chassis and container availability pressure at inland ramps heading into peak season. Drayage providers serving rail ramps should confirm chassis pool commitments now rather than after equipment starts running short.
• Coal's continued softness is capacity railroads can redeploy. Because coal carloads keep declining while intermodal surges, Class I railroads have more locomotive and crew capacity to shift toward intermodal service than the headline growth number alone suggests — a modest tailwind for intermodal transit reliability that a pure volume reading would miss.
• Grain's harvest bump is seasonal, not structural. A forwarder pricing intermodal or transload capacity into Q4 should treat the current grain-driven carload strength as temporary; it will fade as harvest season passes, while the intermodal growth trend has been running above carload growth for multiple weeks and looks more durable.